Age (Years)? | |
Self-reported health | Fair or Poor Good Excellent |
Weight | |
unit | kg lb |
Height | |
unit | in cm |
Race/ethnicity | White Other |
Self-reported physical activity | Inactive Active |
History of fracture occurring at >=55 years | Yes No |
Parental hip fracture | Yes No |
Current smoking | Currently Past or Never |
Current corticosteroid use | Yes No |
Use of hypoglycemic agent? | Yes No |
This algorithm, published in 2007 in JAMA, was developed to predict the 5 year hip fracture risk in post-menopausal women. Data from over 90,000 women, as part of the Women's Health Initiative, was used to develop a predictive algorithm. This was then validated in almost 70,000 women and then the model was tested in almost 11,000 women who underwent DXA scans for bone mass density.
This algorithm performed similarly well to DXA scanning in predicting which women were high risk of hip fracture.
11 Factors were found to predict hip fracture within 5 years:
Note 1: Weight is scored 1 point for every 25 lbs under 200 lbs (every 11.4 kgs under 90.9 kgs).
Note 2: Height is score as 0.5 point for every inch >64 inches (every 2.54 cm >1.626 meters).
The total score is the sum of the points from these 11 factors. The higher the score, the higher the 5 year risk of hip fracture.
Total Score | % Probability of hip fracture within 5 years |
---|---|
<=7 | <0.1% |
8 | <0.1% |
9 | 0.1% |
10 | 0.1% |
11 | 0.2% |
12 | 0.2% |
13 | 0.3% |
14 | 0.4% |
15 | 0.5% |
16 | 0.6% |
17 | 0.8% |
18 | 1.0% |
19 | 1.3% |
20 | 1.6% |
21 | 2.1% |
22 | 2.7% |
23 | 3.5% |
24 | 4.6% |
>=25 | >5.0% |
The Median % probability was used in this table
Reference:
Robbins J, Aragaki AK, Kooperberg C, et al. Factors Associated With 5-Year Risk of Hip Fracture in Postmenopausal Women. JAMA. 2007 28;298(20):2389-98.