Osteoporosis Risk (Hip fracture)
Info
Age (Years)?
Self-reported health Fair or Poor Good Excellent
Weight
unit kg lb
Height
unit in cm
Race/ethnicity White Other
Self-reported physical activity Inactive Active
History of fracture occurring at >=55 years Yes No
Parental hip fracture Yes No
Current smoking Currently Past or Never
Current corticosteroid use Yes No
Use of hypoglycemic agent? Yes No
R e s u l t s
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Score
 
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Info
Osteoporosis Risk (Hip fracture)

This algorithm, published in 2007 in JAMA, was developed to predict the 5 year hip fracture risk in post-menopausal women. Data from over 90,000 women, as part of the Women's Health Initiative, was used to develop a predictive algorithm. This was then validated in almost 70,000 women and then the model was tested in almost 11,000 women who underwent DXA scans for bone mass density.

This algorithm performed similarly well to DXA scanning in predicting which women were high risk of hip fracture.

11 Factors were found to predict hip fracture within 5 years:

  • Age [0.5 pts per year >50 years]
  • Self-reported health
    • Fair or Poor [3 pts]
    • Good [1 pt]
    • Excellent [0 pt]
  • Weight (Scoring Note 1)
  • Height (Scoring Note 2)
  • Race/ethnicity
    • White [3 pts]
    • Other [0 pt]
  • Self-reported physical activity
    • Inactive [1 pt]
    • Active [0 pt]
  • History of fracture occurring at >=55 years
    • Yes [2 pts]
    • No [0 pt]
  • Parental hip fracture
    • Yes [1 pt]
    • No [0 pt]
  • Current smoking
    • Currently [3 pts]
    • Past or Never [0 pt]
  • Current corticosteroid use
    • Yes [3 pts]
    • No [0 pt]
  • Use of hypoglycemic agent?
    • Yes [2 pts]
    • No [0 pt]

Note 1: Weight is scored 1 point for every 25 lbs under 200 lbs (every 11.4 kgs under 90.9 kgs).

Note 2: Height is score as 0.5 point for every inch >64 inches (every 2.54 cm >1.626 meters).

The total score is the sum of the points from these 11 factors. The higher the score, the higher the 5 year risk of hip fracture.

Total Score % Probability of hip fracture within 5 years
<=7 <0.1%
8 <0.1%
9 0.1%
10 0.1%
11 0.2%
12 0.2%
13 0.3%
14 0.4%
15 0.5%
16 0.6%
17 0.8%
18 1.0%
19 1.3%
20 1.6%
21 2.1%
22 2.7%
23 3.5%
24 4.6%
>=25 >5.0%

The Median % probability was used in this table

Reference:

Robbins J, Aragaki AK, Kooperberg C, et al. Factors Associated With 5-Year Risk of Hip Fracture in Postmenopausal Women. JAMA. 2007 28;298(20):2389-98.