Atrial Fibrillation Stroke or Death Risk (5 Year)
Info
Age (yrs) <=55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94
Systolic BP (mmHg) <120 120 - 139 140 - 159 160 - 179 >=180
Diabetes Yes No
Smoker Yes No
Prior MI or CHF Yes No
Significant heart murmur Yes No
LVH on EKG Yes No
R e s u l t s
Risk of stroke or death in next 5 years (%)
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Info
Atrial Fibrillation Stroke or Death Risk (5 Year)

This evaluation looked at patients with atrial fibrillation NOT on Warfarin. This scale factors age, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, tobacco smoking, prior MI or CHF, Significant murmur, and presence of LVH on EKG into consideration to develop an overall risk of stroke or death within the next 5 years in patients with atrial fibrillation. Points are summed and from the total points a 5 year stroke or death risk is calculated.

Age (yrs)
<=55 0 pt
56 1 pts
57 2 pts
58-59 3 pts
60 4 pts
61 5 pts
62 6 pts
63 7 pts
64-65 8 pts
66 9 pts
67 10 pts
68 11 pts
69 12 pts
70-71 13 pts
72 14 pts
73 15 pts
74 16 pts
75 17 pts
76-77 18 pts
78 19 pts
79 20 pts
80 21 pts
81 22 pts
82-83 23 pts
84 24 pts
85 25 pts
86 26 pts
87 27 pts
88 28 pts
89 29 pts
90-91 30 pts
92 31 pts
93 32 pts
94 33 pts
Systolic BP (mmHg)
<120 0 pt
120-139 1 pts
140-159 2 pts
160-179 3 pts
>=180 4 pts
Diabetes
No 0 pt
Yes 4 pts
Smoker
No 0 pt
Yes 5 pts
Prior MI or CHF
No 0 pt
Yes 6 pts
Significant heart murmur
No 0 pt
Yes 4 pts
LVH on EKG
No 0 pt
Yes 2 pts

Interpretation of summed points of % risk of stroke or death in next 5 years:

Points %Risk
0 8%
1 9%
2-3 10%
4 11%
5 12%
6 13%
7 15%
8 16%
9 17%
10 19%
11 20%
12 22%
13 24%
14 26%
15 28%
16 30%
17 32%
18 35%
19 37%
20 40%
21 43%
22 46%
23 49%
24 52%
25 55%
26 58%
27 61%
28 65%
29 68%
30 71%
31 75%
32 78%
>=33 >80%

Reference:

Wang TJ, Massaro JM, Levy D, et al. A risk score for predicting stroke or death in individuals with new-onset atrial fibrillation in the community: the Framingham Heart Study. JAMA. 2003;290(8):1049-56.