10-year Risk for Hard ASCVD (ACC/AHA 2013)
Info
Age (years)
Gender Male Female
Race White African American
Total Cholesterol (mg/dL)
HDL (mg/dL)
Systolic BP (mmHg)
Is reported SBP treated or untreated Treated Untreated
Current smoker Yes No
Diabetic Yes No
R e s u l t s
Output
? ? ?
Show Results
Info
10-year Risk for Hard ASCVD (ACC/AHA 2013)

Inputs:

  • Age (years)
  • Gender (m/f)
  • Race (white/African American)
  • Total Cholesterol (mg/dL)
  • HDL (mg/dL)
  • Systolic BP (mmHg)
  • Is reported SBP treated or untreated (T or U)
  • Current smoker (y/n)
  • Diabetic (y/n)

Score (start with 0):

First, categorize patient by gender and race: WM, WF, AM, AF (White, African-American, Male, Female)

Second, using the following table, choose the correct coefficient for each factor, based on gender/race:

White male AA male White female AA female
A = ln(age) * 12.344 2.469 -29.799 17.114
B = [ln(age)]2 * 0 0 4.884 0
C = ln (total chol) * 11.853 0.302 13.540 0.940
D = ln(age) * ln(total chol) * -2.664 0 3.114 0
E = ln(hdl) -7.990 -0.307 -13.578 -18.920
F = ln(age) * ln(hdl) * 1.769 0 3.149 4.475
** NOTE: USE EITHER TREATED OR UNTREATED, NOT BOTH FOR G THROUGH J
G = ln(treated SBP) * 1.797 1.916 2.019 29.291
H = ln(age) * ln(treated SBP) * 0 0 0 -6.432
I = ln(untreated SBP) * 1.764 1.809 1.957 27.820
J = ln(age) * ln(untreated SBP) * 0 0 0 -6.087
**NOTE: IF NON-SMOKER, K & L are both 0.
K = If smoker, 1 * 7.837 0.549 7.574 0.691
L = If smoker, ln(age) * -1.795 0 -1.665 0
** NOTE: IF NON-DIABETIC, M is 0
M = If diabetic, 1 * 0.658 0.645 0.661 0.874
S = Sum of A through M
T = Age/Gender based Mean: 61.18 19.54 -29.18 86.16
U = A/G based Survival: 0.9144 0.8954 0.9665 0.9533

X = e ^ (S - T)

Score = 100 * (1 - U ^ X)

Report:

Estimated 10 year risk of a first hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) event, defined as MI, cardiovascular death, or CVA, in a patient without known ASCVD, is Score %.

If Score >= 7.5, add: "This risk is higher than 7.5%; in this elevated risk group, statin use has been demonstrated to reduce mortality."

If Score <7.5, add: "This risk is less than 7.5; in this low risk group, statin use has not been demonstrated to improve mortality."

If age is <40 or >79, add: "Results are only valid for patients between the ages of 40 and 79. Clinical utility for using this calculator outside of this age range is limited."

Notes: This calculator was released in November 2013, and is based only on data from the highest-quality studies, which discounted large amounts of data that had driven clinical practice for many years. This resulted in a great deal of controversy, and suspicion that it would lead to over-use of statins.

Reference: 2013 ACC/AHA Guideline on the Assessment of Cardiovascular Risk: A Report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force on Practice Guidelines. Circulation, published online at http://circ.ahajournals.org/content/early/2013/11/11/01.cir.0000437741.48606.98.full.pdf+html