Alcoholic Liver Disease (1 Year Mortality)
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Gender Male Female
Hb (gm/L)
Albumin (gm/L)
Encephalopathy grade Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3
R e s u l t s
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LR Score (Score)
 
Mortality (%)
 
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Alcoholic Liver Disease (1 Year Mortality)

This calculator predicts mortality at 1 year in patients with alcoholic liver disease.

The formula used is:

  • A logistic regression score (LR Score) based upon the encephalopathy grade, hemoglobin and albumin is calculated; this is then used to calculate mortality rate at 1 year
  • LR Score = 6 + (1.03 * Encephalopathy Grade) - (2.5 * Hgb / Normal Hgb) - (1.56 * Albumin)
  • Mortality = 100 * e (LRScore) / (1 + e (LRScore) )

Note that the encephalopathy grading is that of Adams and Foley. Grade I: Euphoria or depression, mild confusion, monotonous voice and/or sleep cycle disorders, ±asterixis.

Grade II. Lethargy and/or confusion, asterixis, triphasic waves on EEG.

Grade III. Severe confusion, incoherent language, semi-stupor but awakes with language, asterixis, triphasic waves on EEG.

Normal Hgb for women will be selected at 14 and for men at 15 g/dL.

References:

  1. Adams RD, Foley JM. Neurologic changes in more common forms of severe liver disease. Trans Am Neurol Assoc. 1949;74:217-9.
  2. Orrego H, Israel Y, Blake JE, et al. Assessment of prognostic factors in alcoholic liver disease: Toward a global quantitative expression of severity. Hepatology. 1983;3(6):896-905.